Fire and Aviation Discussion for Libby Montana
Coming May 1st, 2019
The following discussion is NOT a valid current discussion and is simply a test fire and aviation discussion.
Fire weather discussion as of 06Z Wednesday: Dry conditions will prevail for Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon. An incoming upper level low pressure area will bring increasing instability Wednesday night with an increasing threat of elevated, nocturnal convection. Due to the relatively small rain cores expected with these elevated showers and thunderstorms, the LCL(lifted condensation level) is expected to be near 12,000 ft with a LAL of 3 and a Haines index of 5. The threat of dry lightning strikes outside of the small rain cores with these thunderstorms is problematic and the threat of new fire starts in dry timber is high. Winds will be southerly to 15 to 20 mph at the 7000 foot level with strong and gusty winds near showers and thunderstorms with gusts potentially to 40 mph in a gusty and erratic fashion. Overnight humidity recoveries on midslopes and ridges will be poor overnight with daytime relative humidities poor on Wednesday and approaching the critical red flag stage.
Aviation discussion as of 06Z Wednesday: VFR flying conditions are expected for Tuesday night into Wednesday although some FU and slantwise visibility restrictions will be possible late Tuesday night through 15Z on Wednesday due to regional wildfire smoke and stable conditions. Conditions will become increasingly unstable on Wednesday afternoon due to the approach of an upper level low with increasing LLWS. Surface winds will be light Tuesday night into Wednesday morning then becoming 240 degrees at 5 to 15 kts. 5000 to 8000 ft winds will be 240 degrees at 10 to 20 kts Tuesday night shifting to 180 degrees at 15 to 25 kts after 18Z on Wednesday. After 04Z on Thursday localized MVFR or IFR conditions are possible under stronger storm cores with possible lower ceilings to 5000 ft above ground level in the vicinity of TS. Strong updrafts and downdrafts will be possible in the vicinity of TS.