Northwest Montana Regional Forecast
Includes Lincoln and Sanders Counties ( Libby, Troy, Eureka, Yaak, Bull Lake, Noxon, Heron, Trout Creek, Thompson Falls, and The Cabinet Mountains)
Issued Thursday April 18, 2019 - 10:45 p.m.
Thursday night…Mostly cloudy and very mild with isolated showers, most likely near the Canadian border. Snow level near 6500 feet. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s with upper 30s around 5000 feet. Light wind with ridge top winds southwest 10 to 20 mph.
Friday…Mostly cloudy and very mild. A chance of showers in the morning then scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may produce brief heavy rain, gusty winds and small hail. Snow level near 6500 to 7000 feet lowering to near 5500 to 6000 feet late in the day. Highs in the 60s with upper 40s around 5000 feet. South to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with ridge top winds southwest 15 to 30 mph.
Friday night…Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening then a chance of rain and snow showers overnight. Snow level lowering to 5000 to 5500 feet. Local snow accumulations of 1 to 2 inches possible above 6000 feet. Lows in the 30s to near 40 with near 30 around 5000 feet. Evening southwest winds 10 to 20 mph becoming west 5 to 15 mph overnight. Ridge top winds west 15 to 30 mph.
Saturday…Variable cloudiness and a little cooler. A slight chance of rain and snow showers over the eastern mountains east of Trego and Eureka. Snow level near 5500 to 6000 feet. Highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s with lower 40s around 5000 feet. West wind 5 to 15 mph with ridge top winds west 10 to 20 mph.
Extended Outlook (Sunday through Thursday)
Sunday through Tuesday…Dry. Lows in the 30s. Around 5000 feet lows in the lower 30s Sunday morning warming to the upper 30s to near 40 Monday and Tuesday mornings. Highs in the 60s to near 70 Sunday warming to the lower 60s to lower 70s Monday and Tuesday. Around 5000 feet highs in the mid 40s Sunday warming to the upper 40s to near 50 Monday and Tuesday.
Wednesday…A chance of rain and high elevation snow showers. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s with mid 30s around 5000 feet. Highs in the 60s to near 70 with upper 40s around 5000 feet.
Thursday…A little cooler with a slight chance of showers near the Canadian border. Lows in the 30s to lower 40s with lower 30s around 5000 feet. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s with lower 40s around 5000 feet.
In-Depth Weather Discussion for Northwest Montana/Rockies
Issued 04/18/2019 11:00 p.m.
Fairly cloudy but mild day on Thursday with a few showers especially across Lincoln County closer to the upper jet support. Clouds will linger through the night tonight into Friday but the incoming system has been trending drier and a bit weaker so temperatures were tweaked up for Friday and precipitation totals decreased some. The only potential flaw in this thinking is that with a weaker system likely to move in now, instead of widespread stable rains falling, instability will be greater and thus the threat for more convective showers and thunderstorms is higher. Several of the HRRR model runs have been showing lines of convection developing in the mid to late afternoon hours as the lift from the approaching trough increases and interacts with greater instability and slightly negative lifted index values. This system will bring some cooler air into the region for Saturday but an upper level ridge will rapidly rebuild across the region on Sunday which will last now through at least Tuesday night resulting in drying and warming temperatures. Next weak system may move in around Wednesday with mild temperatures and a few showers with drier conditions returning towards the end of next week. Many valley locations will likely hit their first 70 degree readings of the year next week and many trees will begin to see leaves and flowers begin to break out. Spring may have finally arrived in far Northwest Montana.