Northwest Montana Regional Forecast
Includes Lincoln and Sanders Counties (cities of Libby, Troy, Eureka, Yaak, Bull Lake, Noxon, Heron, Trout Creek, Thompson Falls, and the Cabinet Mountains)
Issued Monday June 25, 2018 - 7:30 a.m. - Updated
Monday...Partly cloudy and breezy. A chance of morning showers and thunderstorms north of Noxon and Heron with greatest chances near the Canadian border. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s with near 60 around 5000 feet. Southwest wind 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 30 mph. Ridge top winds southwest 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 40 mph.
Monday night...Fair skies and cooler. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s with mid 40s around 5000 feet. Evening southwest wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light.
Tuesday...Mostly sunny and cooler. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s with mid 50s around 5000 feet. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph.
Extended Outlook(Wednesday through Sunday)
Wednesday...Mostly sunny and seasonal. Lows in the 40s with mid 40s around 5000 feet. Highs in the 70s with upper 50s around 5000 feet.
Thursday through Sunday...Unsettled with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s to near 50 with lower 40s around 5000 feet. Highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s with lower 50s around 5000 feet.
In-Depth Weather Discussion for Northwest Montana/Rockies
Updated discussion issued 06/25/2018 7:30 a.m.
Updated the forecast for today (Monday) to increase the chance of morning showers and thunderstorms and spread the chances farther south to areas from about Noxon and Heron and points north. Early morning radar is showing two lines of elevated convection across Eastern Washington and Northern Idaho moving northeast rapidly. The HRRR model is showing this elevated convection moving into Lincoln County shortly after 8:30 a.m. this morning and lasting perhaps an hour or two before weakening and moving out. There may be some brief heavy rain and gusty winds with these showers and thunderstorms but they will be moving quickly and will not last long in any one area. No other updates planned at this time.
Issued 06/24/2018 5:40 p.m.
A warm day on Sunday with plenty of sunshine will give way to some changes for Monday. A shortwave will move into the region late tonight into Monday morning and may be accompanied by some elevated instability and lift which could result in a few showers and thunderstorms near the Canadian border. The biggest change will be the breezy conditions that will develop on Monday as a cold front associated with the shortwave sweeps through the region. Thankfully due to the recent rains, our fire danger has decreased somewhat so that should not be a problem. Southwest winds will pick up and possibly gust as high as 30 mph in the valleys and 40 mph over the higher elevations. The cold front and associated shortwave will bring in some much drier air with lower dewpoints which will allow temperatures to drop sharply Monday night into early Tuesday morning once the evening breezy conditions settle down. It may feel rather cool Tuesday morning. Thereafter Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a flat ridge of high pressure with seasonable temperatures in the 40s at night and 70s during the day in valley areas with some light northwesterly breezes each afternoon along with dry and stable conditions. Another cool upper level trough looks to begin to descend into the region by Thursday which looks to bring more unsettled conditions with some showers and thunderstorms once again. It's possible by Friday that a deformation band of more stratiform rain may develop after perhaps an active convective day on Thursday with a widespread rain and cool temperatures possible on Friday. The upper trough begins to transform into another closed cold upper level low with more chances for showers and thunderstorms under the core of the upper low for the weekend. Temperatures look to lower down to below normal levels for late June into early July although nothing unusual for the time of year. As always, check back often for the latest updates.